## It’s Not the Math that’s Hard

*[Editor's Note: Ann Marie talks about stealing war ponies, probability and math education in this terrific post. -Virginia]*

Probability by Future of Math via Flickr

Hoksinato is not sure whether or not they should try to steal the war ponies. What is the probability that warriors stealing war ponies will get away?

A statistician would immediately think of this in terms of P(A|B) in other words, what is the probability of escape given that they are stealing war ponies? The answer is clearly 30%.